Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Dow recoups its loss

The set up:
On monday the US markets were closed. The world markets experienced a crash worse than any seen since 2001. Accordingly US futures were trading down around 5% before the open. Bernanke issues a surprise 75 bp rate cut before the bell and the futures still don't rally.

I read in some news articles that "Futures are down despite emergency rate cut by the fed". This is my first mistake: believing that the reporters know why the market is moving in a particular way. I decide to short FSLR at about 155 before the open.

The market opens ridiculously down. FSLR (the main contender) down 11% to about 155. AAPL down 9%, C down 6%, and except FRE and FNM, no charts in the green. SKF was up about 9%.

The FSLR short actually makes money for the first 30 minutes, but then starts to tank ridiculously. The entire market swings up to about 1% down by noon. All the while FSLR with its high beta is making significant gains.

My mistake #2 is not to cover the short at the 8% loss region, which would have been at 170. The stock continues to gain until it gets to 185 when I cover out of fear. This cover (sice it was on the same day) confirms the fact that I'm a day trader and forces ETRADE to bar me from making any more trades.

My third mistake was not to consider covering half my position when things turned against me. My fourth mistake was not to let my position ride after all the day's events. I had a motivation for a loss tomorrow: AAPL was likely to report poor earnings. Tomorrow FSLR is likely to lose I'd say about 6%. We'll see.

My fourth mistake was not to have enough bullets to get into other trades. Around noon FRE was up 15% which is clearly unsustainable. A short a such time would've made around 10% in about 10 minutes. These are the opportunities I usually look for.

The strategy is a combination of technicals and fundamentals. We all know that FSLR is ridiculously overvalued and that it's a bear market. The Bear aspect is supposed to protect against losses like I had today-- this is probably why I wouldn't cut my loss at 8%.

Upon reflection though, it's quite clear that FSLR was down b/c of the global drop and popped b/c of the rate cut. Shorting before the market open on the day of a massive, unexpected rate cut is blatantly inadvisable. I hope we all know that now.

1 comment:

Hana said...

I think the cardinal rule of all games is whatever you do, don't lose your head. It's a game I don't know but it is a game. And the rules seem to change every day!