Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Fed cuts rate 50 bp

After 3 days of exceptionally low volume, the fed finally made their announcement. The wait was a real nail biter, but as expected the target rate was cut 50 bp to 3.00. In fact, to hedge against a deficient cut I put in a stop order for 27.15 on C, enough to cover my transaction costs. Knowing E*TRADE's brokerage system, though, it probably would've executed at 26.23 anyway. I maintain that I would be a much better trader if I had better tools.

In fact, I like that the MauiTrader said that he never placed an order during the day. He only acts when not under pressure and after careful consideration. In fact, he doesn't call himself a trader, but rather an investor. I don't give much of a shit about these distinctions.

As for Citigroup, its stock has about a 2% gain on the day plus the dividend gets assigned today. At .32, that leaves me with an extra 64$ profit. Also read, so long as the stock won't drop 32 cents, stay long at least until tomorrow.

This trade has netted me over 500$ so far (and has been about a week long), and is not bad for my long-only penalty box. However, I wouldn't say I had any exceptional strategy beneath it:
1) I felt especially down at 22 that Citigroup, no matter how badly it has performed, was completely undervalued. If they clean up their act properly, the stock should be worth at least 40, if not back to its usual value of 60.
2) The massive bear slide we underwent in the beginning of this month generated an imminent oversold rally. I never had much sympathy for this rally (and honestly I think it will peter out in the next few days, if not by the end of today), but I need to play somewhere.

I would like to sell this position very soon. I'd hate to give up the extra hundred bucks tomorrow (as I've observed, the standard intraday vol), but I'm not sure how dividends get assigned, so I'll leave my position on until then.

I still can't short so I'll probably be out of ideas for a little while.

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