Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Citigroup trade on Well-Thought-Out-Move

Many more mistakes to list:
1) I said to myself a million times yesterday, Never Cover. Never, ever cover. Sure enough FSLR had a drop of 15% this morning making up yesterday's loss. This was the original risk management system.

I think that psychologically I was handicapped because of the day trader status "upgrade" which curbed my freedom to go in one day and out another. I can blame it at least a little, but it doesn't mean I get my money back.

2) I had said on friday a short of AAPL would be an amazing trade before the close. I figured that the earnings report would come in not unlike INTC: a decent quarter but a shitty outlook. Sure enough that's what Apple said but unlike the 12% drop in INTC upon a similar anouncement AAPL dropped 17%! This also took FSLR down with it quite a bit.

This isn't so much a mistake as a missed opportunity. I probably would've covered yesterday on the open locking in a gain. If I had been a miraculous trader I would've shorted again at the high around 3:30PM yesterday, but this is all wishful thinking. Of course, none of this would've been possible given E*TURD's and NASD's awful fiat.

3) In another well-thought-out move, like the Onion said, I went long C, violating my cardinal rule: Never go Long until the MauiTrader says the bear is done. As a matter of fact he's saying now that a pop is due but to keep a close guard. I also like the fact that the dividend is going to be paid in the next few days. I can't tell if a dividend payment boosts or depresses a stock price, so that's something to look for.

I'm treating C as more of a savings account for right now until I can transfer funds into a a legitmate day-trading platform. I can only go long, and I only put less than half the available funds in the stock. I'm looking for, as Modest Mouse would say, for the stock to float on...

Many of my motivations for buying it comes from the old rain dance: it's been so long since we had an up day, we're about due for one. There's also a faux bottom with the VIX jumping to 35 finally yesterday on that amazing crash and rally.

I've also come to love C as the CIA loved the USSR back in the 70s. It's a cuddly teddy bear to me. I've seen it's stock move for the last couple months and feel that I know it intimately. It feels like a safe haven sometimes, like when tech is sliding like today. I read an article in seeking alpha that says to wait until C is trading under 20, and hopefully at 12 to buy it. Like I've said I think going long once the recession is over is going to be very fun, and we can look for the next GOOG RIMM AAPL FSLR etc. then. Even maybe a financial too. But till then I'm hoping just to float on. 12 is too low: I couldn't imagine it. 20 is likely, though: I'll monitor the stock carefully.

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